OFTEC and UKIFDA have been analysing the last information dump and the findings show that many rural oil heated homes will need an alternative due to the cost and disruption of installation, and high running costs.
When it was launched in 2020, the electrification of heat demonstration project was hailed by government as a critical stepping stone for the large-scale roll out of heat pumps. Around 750 homes were to receive heat pumps through the scheme, at an overall cost to the taxpayer of nearly £15 million pounds. The project was delivered by a consortium of organisations, led by the Energy Systems Catapult.
In 2023 an interim report from the project was released, claiming that “All housing types are suitable for a heat pump” and that “There is no property type or architectural era that is unsuitable for a heat pump”. Naturally, this was seized on by many supporters of electric heating as justification for the government’s heat pump first approach.
Just before Christmas, further project data was released. While the headlines celebrated an 85% approval rating – hardly surprising given the heat pumps were free – we were surprised it did not comment on running costs which we were able to calculate using the data. It’s a case where the devil is very much in the detail and showed that the original claims around heat pump suitability need to be qualified with a lot of ifs, buts and maybes, particularly where oil heated homes are likely to be concerned.
One of the most striking things it showed was that out of the 742 homes that participated, only 28 were homes previously heated by oil – hardly enough for a representative sample and a significant data gap. Worse still, because harder-to-treat homes were largely excluded due to conversion cost, the homes selected were far from typical of oil homes in general. 18 of the 28 had insulated cavity walls, and three had solid wall insulation.
This is important because the project found there were often significant challenges involved in installing heat pumps in older homes, and uninsulated homes had very high energy consumption, even with a heat pump. Despite the heavy triaging process, the oil homes that were eventually converted showed these problems clearly. The average cost of installing the heat pump was a hardly cheap £14,500, while we found the running costs were on average £236 a year higher than they would have been for oil heating systems, based on current energy prices.
The high heat demand of older, less well insulated homes also created difficulties, and the report noted that “Pre-1919 homes were more challenging to progress as the heat load of many of these properties exceeded the heating capacities of the heat pumps available” and “…the fabric energy efficiency measures needed to reduce the heat pump capacity required would be too expensive within the constraints of the project”.
While the project shows that the challenges of retrofitting heat pumps into older homes can be overcome – justifying to a degree the original claim – it often comes at a significant cost, both for the initial installation and subsequent use. Add to that the potential disruption, which was the most common reason why applicants pulled out of the project, and it’s clear that heat pumps won’t be an ideal solution for everyone – at least not for now. And given that over 40% of oil heated homes are of solid wall construction and typically have higher than average heat demand, ironically the report actually supports OFTEC and UKIFDA’s view that oil heating customers need more decarbonisation choices than just heat pumps, including the option to use renewable liquid fuels.
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